Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Arequipa city, Peru
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21754/tecnia.v35i2.2521Palabras clave:
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, ground motion models, peak ground acceleration, spectral accelerations, ArequipaResumen
Arequipa, located in southern Peru, lies in a region of significant seismic potential known as the Pacific Ring of Fire. This high seismic activity is closely linked to the subduction process, where the Nazca Plate converges beneath the South American Plate at an average rate of 70 mm/year. This study presents an updated and detailed Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Arequipa, incorporating a comprehensive seismic catalog that spans historical and instrumental seismicity from 1471 to 2023. In addition to subduction-related sources, this study also considers Quaternary crustal faults. Seismological parameters such as Beta (β) and activity rate (λ) were estimated using the maximum likelihood method, considering catalog completeness assessment.
The analysis includes both subduction zones, modeled with a doubly bounded exponential distribution, and quaternary faults, modeled with a maximum magnitude frequency model. Epistemic uncertainties were addressed through a logic tree framework, incorporating various Ground Motion Models (GMMs) weighted by their relevance. The GMMs used for subduction are based on the latest models available. Site conditions were classified as soils type B (Vs30= 760 m/s).
Seismic disaggregation reveals that earthquakes with magnitudes between Mw 7.5 and 8.0 at distances of 100-150 km contribute most significantly to the seismic hazard for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations. The primary contributors are intermediate intraslab events, followed by interface sources. Finally, spectral accelerations were calculated for 10%, 5% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years , yielding PGA values of 0.44 g, 0.58 g, and 0.80 g, respectively. Due to the low slip rates and long recurrence intervals of seismic activity on Quaternary crustal faults, these sources do not contribute significantly to the seismic hazard probabilities of exceedance higher than 2% in 50 years.
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